Festive Housing Demand Is Holding, But the Growth Has Slowed
The festive quarter is holding up, and that is now the good news rather than the given. Anarock expects housing sales across India's top seven cities in the July-to-September quarter to finish 3% to 4% above the June quarter, which recorded around 90,700 units. Healthy. Also the slowest festive growth the market has talked about in several years.
The stretch from Ganesh Chaturthi to Diwali has always carried a disproportionate share of the year's bookings, because Indian buyers time a purchase to it. What has changed is that developers are no longer treating it as a licence to launch everything at once.
Key takeaways
- Top-seven sales in July-September are expected to come in 3% to 4% above the June quarter's roughly 90,700 units.
- That June quarter was itself 6% below the same period a year earlier, so the growth is off a reduced base.
- Developers are launching more selectively; buyers are scrutinising price, payment terms and quality harder.
- In the June quarter only Kolkata, Hyderabad and Bengaluru grew year on year — 10%, 2% and 1%.
- Mumbai and Bengaluru together took more than 48% of everything sold in the top seven.
- Rates are not helping or hurting: the repo rate has been held at 5.25% since August.
The numbers behind the forecast
| Measure | Figure | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 sales, top 7 | ~90,700 units | Down 6% year on year |
| Q3 2026 expectation | +3% to +4% on Q2 | Festive season working, modestly |
| Cities growing YoY in Q2 | Kolkata +10%, Hyderabad +2%, Bengaluru +1% | Four of seven shrank |
| MMR and Bengaluru share | Over 48% of sales | Demand is concentrating |
| Repo rate | 5.25%, unchanged since August | No rate tailwind this quarter |
The distinction between quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year is doing a lot of work here, and it is where most coverage gets loose. A 3% to 4% rise on the June quarter is not the same as a market growing 3% to 4%. Measured against last year's July-September, the top seven may well still be flat or lower. Both statements can be true, and only one of them sounds like growth.
Why the slowdown is not a bad thing
The post-pandemic years produced a market where launches ran well ahead of sales in several cities. That is how you get the inventory overhangs that take five years to clear and end in discounting that hurts everyone who bought at the top.
What is being described now is the opposite behaviour. Developers are calibrating supply to demand rather than to sentiment. Buyers are spending longer on payment terms and delivery record. Neither of those produces exciting headlines and both produce a healthier market in three years.
The pattern is visible in the cities that grew. Kolkata's 10% came off a small base in a market that never overheated. Hyderabad and Bengaluru grew slightly while working through supply they had already committed. The markets that shrank are mostly the ones that ran hardest in 2023 and 2024.
What concentration means for a buyer
More than 48% of everything sold across the top seven went to Mumbai and Bengaluru. Demand is not spread evenly across India; it is pooling in two metros, with NCR — and Gurugram in particular, at roughly 43% of the region's sales and capital values up about 10% — running its own cycle behind them.
For a buyer, concentration cuts both ways. In a concentrated market, liquidity is good: you can sell when you need to, because there is always a buyer. But pricing power sits with the seller, and the discount you hope to negotiate in a festive season is smaller in Mumbai than it is in a city where sales fell 10%.
If you are buying in a market that shrank this year, you have more leverage than the festive marketing suggests. Use it.
What actually gets discounted in the festive season
Very little of it is the price. The concessions that developers offer at this time of year cluster into a few categories, and they are not equal.
- Waived floor rise or preferential location charges. Real money, often Rs 2 lakh to Rs 6 lakh on a mid-sized flat. Worth having.
- Stamp duty "paid by the builder". Genuinely valuable where offered on a completed unit, because it is a cash cost you cannot finance. Read whether it is capped.
- Free car parking or club membership. Usually a repackaging of something that was never separately priced in the first place.
- Gold coins, appliances, foreign trips. Marketing. Value them at a fraction of the stated figure and ignore them in the comparison.
- Subvention or deferred payment plans. Treat with care. The interest is in the price somewhere, and the risk sits with you if the project slips.
The single most useful question at a festive sales office: what is the all-in price including every charge, and what did the last three units in this tower actually register at? A discount on an inflated base is not a discount.
Rates are neutral this quarter
The Monetary Policy Committee held the repo rate at 5.25% in August, unanimously, with a neutral stance. The next decision is due in early October. So the festive quarter is running without a rate cut behind it, which is part of why the growth is measured rather than sharp.
For existing borrowers, the practical action is unrelated to the festive season: if your floating rate is materially above what new borrowers are being quoted, that gap is worth a conversation with your lender or a look at refinancing, whatever the season. Our home loan down payment guide covers what lenders currently expect you to bring to the table.
The honest view
This is a normal market doing normal things, and that has become unusual enough to be worth saying plainly. Sales are growing modestly, supply is being managed, prices in most cities are rising slower than they were, and buyers are asking better questions.
If you are waiting for a crash to buy, nothing here supports that. If you are expecting the 2023-style run-up to resume, nothing here supports that either. What the data supports is buying a specific property at a defensible price, with the delivery record checked — which is what should have been happening all along.
Our breakdown of the NCR price data and the Gurugram market study give the regional picture underneath these national numbers.
Frequently asked questions
Are housing sales rising this festive season?
Modestly. Anarock expects the July-September quarter to finish 3% to 4% above the April-June quarter's roughly 90,700 units across the top seven cities. Note that the comparison is against the previous quarter, not the same quarter last year — June-quarter sales were themselves 6% below last year's level.
Is this a good time to buy a house in India?
It is a reasonable time to buy a specific property at a defensible price. Supply is being matched to demand, price growth has moderated in most cities, and developers are more willing to concede on charges than on headline rates. It is not a market that rewards waiting for a crash or rushing in ahead of a boom.
Which Indian cities are seeing housing sales grow?
In the June quarter only three of the top seven grew year on year: Kolkata at 10%, Hyderabad at 2% and Bengaluru at 1%. Mumbai and Bengaluru between them accounted for more than 48% of all sales in the top seven, so demand is concentrating rather than broadening.
What festive offers from developers are actually worth something?
Waived floor-rise and preferential-location charges, and stamp duty genuinely borne by the builder on a completed unit, are real money. Free parking and club memberships usually repackage something that was never separately priced. Gold coins and appliances are marketing. Always ask for the all-in price and the last three registered values in the same tower.
Will home loan rates fall before Diwali?
Nothing is scheduled that would make them. The repo rate has been held at 5.25% since August, unanimously and with a neutral stance, and the next policy decision falls in early October. Any lender advertising a cut this quarter is adjusting its own margin rather than passing on a policy move.
If you are deciding whether to book this quarter or wait, we will look at the specific project and tell you which of the two the numbers support.
