Dubai Property Market Report: What the 2026 Numbers Say
Dubai's property market is doing two things at once in 2026, and most commentary picks one of them. Sales have cooled sharply from last year's record: the second quarter's residential deal count was down about a third on 2025 and the value down almost half. Prices have not followed. The average rate per square foot is higher than it was a year ago, prime villa communities are up double digits, and rents on signed contracts are still edging up. This report puts the numbers side by side, says which index each one comes from, and ends with what it means if you are buying this quarter.
Figures are the Dubai Land Department's, as published by the department and by the brokerages that analyse its feed. Where two sources define a number differently, both are given.
Key Takeaways
- Volume down, value down more. Q2 residential sales: about 34,850 deals worth AED 84.9 billion, down 31 per cent and 45 per cent on the year (Betterhomes, on DLD data). August: 11,601 sales worth AED 27.9 billion, after about 14,100 in July.
- Prices up on the year. The average residential rate reached about AED 1,770 per sq ft in the first half, against AED 1,600 through 2025; the DLD median in August sat near AED 1,690. Apartments eased from about AED 1,853 at the end of 2025 to AED 1,791 in June; villas held near AED 2,325.
- Off-plan is three-quarters of the market. 76 per cent of Q2 sales; the secondary market fell 59 per cent on the year to 8,512 deals while off-plan eased only 12 per cent.
- Rents: up on contracts, softer on listings. Signed rents rose 3.1 per cent on the year in Q2 (villas 5.7 per cent) and tenant enquiries rose 20 per cent; CBRE's listing-based index shows rents 2.6 per cent lower than a year ago.
- The supply wave is here. About 55,600 homes are due in 2026, the most since 2008, and 60,000 to 70,000 are projected for 2027.
The headline numbers
| Period | Sales transactions | Sales value | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 2026 | 86,005 | AED 286.4 billion | Second-highest first half on record; H1 2025 was AED 326.6 billion |
| Q2 2026, residential only | 34,850 | AED 84.9 billion | Down 31% and 45% year on year (Betterhomes) |
| June 2026 | — | AED 32.7 billion | Strongest month of the quarter |
| July 2026 | About 14,100 | — | Busiest month of the summer by count |
| August 2026 | 11,601 | AED 27.9 billion | AED 46.2 billion including mortgages and gifts; a Palm Jumeirah home sold for about AED 79 million |
| January to August 2026, all DLD procedures | 148,564 | AED 523.4 billion | Sales plus mortgages and gifts, per the department's 1 September release |
The two totals that look contradictory are not. The AED 286 billion first-half figure counts sales; the AED 523 billion figure to August counts every registered procedure, including mortgage registrations and family gifts. Anyone quoting a "record year" is usually using the second definition, and anyone quoting a "slump" the first.
Sales cooled. Prices did not
Savills counted about 35,900 residential transactions in Q2, roughly 19 per cent fewer than in Q1, and attributed the drop to more completed supply, more choice for buyers, more selective behaviour and a period of regional uncertainty in the spring. The price data tells the other half of the story. The average rate across the city rose to about AED 1,770 per sq ft in the first half from AED 1,600 in 2025. Within that, apartments slipped from about AED 1,853 per sq ft at the end of 2025 to AED 1,791 by June, a fall of 3 per cent, while villas were flat at about AED 2,325. Betterhomes' community index shows the rate per square foot still rising in most tracked communities even as deal counts fell, led by prime villas: Palm Jumeirah Garden Homes up 37 per cent on the year and Jumeirah Islands up 20 per cent.
So the correct summary is a market with fewer, dearer transactions, where the price softness that exists is in mid-market apartments and the strength is in villas people cannot build more of. Whether that holds is the question we work through in will Dubai property prices fall.
Off-plan and ready: two different markets now
Off-plan took 76 per cent of Q2 residential sales, 26,338 deals against 8,512 in the secondary market. The secondary market is where the slowdown lives: down 59 per cent on the year, against a 12 per cent easing in off-plan. Two things are behind that. Developers are still launching with payment plans that spread 60 to 80 per cent of the price over three to five years, which a resale cannot match when non-resident mortgages cover only 50 to 60 per cent of value. And ready stock is competing with the largest handover pipeline in eighteen years, so a seller who needs to sell is negotiating.
The average ready deal in the first half was about AED 5.4 million against AED 2.4 million for off-plan, which is why value fell faster than volume: the expensive half of the market is the half that slowed. If you are buying a completed home, this is the first quarter since 2021 in which the buyer, not the seller, sets the pace. How the plans work, and what a 1 per cent monthly plan actually costs, is in Dubai property payment plans and off-plan property in Dubai.
Rents and yields
Rents depend on which index you read. On signed Ejari contracts, Betterhomes put average residential rents up 3.1 per cent on the year in Q2 and flat on the quarter, with villas up 5.7 per cent and apartments up 2.9 per cent; tenant enquiries were up 20 per cent on the year and 18 per cent on the quarter. Bayut's first-half report shows renewals up 3 per cent to more than 514,000 contracts, and one-bedroom rents up about 3 per cent, with Arjan up 3.4 per cent and International City up 4.3 per cent. CBRE's Q2 review, which reads asking rents, has Dubai residential rents 6.2 per cent lower than the previous quarter and 2.6 per cent below a year earlier. Both can be true: landlords renewing existing tenants are still getting increases under the RERA index, while new listings in areas with fresh supply are being priced to let.
Gross yields at the end of June were about 6.9 per cent on apartments and 4.5 per cent on villas citywide. The spread between communities is wider than the spread between years: JVC and Business Bay studios still clear 7 per cent, while a Palm villa is a 3 per cent asset bought for the land. The community table is in Dubai rental yields by area.
The supply wave, 2026 to 2027
| Year | Homes due | Where it lands |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | About 55,600 (roughly 32,000 in the second half) | JVC, Business Bay, Arjan, DAMAC Lagoons, Azizi Venice in Dubai South |
| 2027 | 60,000 to 70,500 projected | JVC, Business Bay, Dubai Hills Estate, Creek Harbour, Azizi Venice |
2026 is on course to be the biggest delivery year since 2008 and 2027 is projected to be bigger still, at roughly double the five-year average. Two cautions before treating that as a crash forecast. Dubai's developers have historically completed about half of what is scheduled in any given year, so the 2027 figure will slip into 2028. And the pipeline is concentrated: JVC, Business Bay and Dubai South take a disproportionate share, while the established villa communities add almost nothing. Expect rents in the high-supply districts to be flat for two years, and expect resale premiums on new handovers there to be thin. Expect neither in Dubai Hills Estate or the Palm.
What it means if you are buying now
- Ready homes: negotiate. With secondary volume down 59 per cent, an asking price is an opening position. Pull the last twelve months of DLD transactions for the building before you offer.
- Off-plan: buy the plan and the developer, not the render. The payment plan is the only reason off-plan is outselling ready 3 to 1; make sure the escrow account and the construction percentage match the instalments you are asked for.
- Yield buyers: go where the tenants already are. Signed rents are still rising, listing rents are not. A building with an established tenant base beats a new tower with 300 units letting at once.
- Do not underwrite 2027 capital growth in a high-supply district. Underwrite the rent, and treat appreciation as the upside.
- Villas are the tight market. If the budget stretches to a villa in a community with no land left, the supply numbers above are on your side. DAMAC Hills and Dubai Hills Estate are the two we cover where that is true.
For Indian and other overseas buyers
None of the above changes the rules of the purchase: freehold title in the buyer's own name, no annual property tax, a 4 per cent DLD transfer fee, the AED 2 million valuation for the ten-year Golden Visa, and a Liberalised Remittance Scheme limit of USD 250,000 per person per year for a buyer from India. What it changes is timing. A rupee buyer at Rs 25.75 to the dirham, the rate our project pages use, is looking at a market where the average apartment rate has come off 3 per cent in six months while the rupee has not moved, and where a ready seller is negotiating for the first time in five years. The process is set out in how to buy property in Dubai, and the resale route specifically in resale property in Dubai.
Frequently asked questions
Is the Dubai property market falling in 2026?
Transaction volumes are falling: Q2 residential deals were down about 31 per cent on the year. Prices are not, on average: the citywide rate per square foot is up on the year, with apartments about 3 per cent below their end-2025 peak and villas flat. Prime villas are still rising.
How much of the market is off-plan?
About 76 per cent of residential sales in Q2 by count, and roughly two-thirds of sales through August. The secondary market fell 59 per cent on the year; off-plan eased 12 per cent.
Are rents in Dubai still rising?
On signed contracts, yes, by about 3 per cent on the year in Q2 with villas up nearer 6 per cent. On asking rents for new listings, CBRE's index shows a fall of about 2.6 per cent on the year, concentrated where new buildings are handing over.
How many homes will be delivered in Dubai in 2026 and 2027?
About 55,600 in 2026, the most since 2008, and a projected 60,000 to 70,500 in 2027, though historically only around half of a year's scheduled completions arrive on time.
Where to go from here
We update this report as each quarter's DLD data is published. The project-level pages behind it, each with its own price and payment plan checked against the sources, are on the Dubai section. If you want the numbers for one building or one community rather than the city, tell us which and we will pull its transactions.
